Bitcoin (BTC) is as hard to trade right now as it was in January

Trading bitcoin BTC$63,820.24 these days feels much as it did seven months ago, at the start of the year.

The price of the largest cryptocurrency is stuck in a tight range, with volatility at six-month lows, and traders are struggling to identify a break to bet on. Not surprisingly, transaction volume has slumped and is on track for the lowest since November 2023.

Back in January, the bitcoin price had been stuck in a narrow band, $86,000-$90,000, since the second half of December. Trading volume had dropped to an average of $5.1 billion a day, and has fallen to $2.2 billion this month, according to research from K33.

What happened next is interesting. Volatility picked up in the following weeks, the price rose to nearly $98,000 by mid-January and then slid down to around $60,000 by early February. Trading volume rose.

And that’s precisely the point. Volatility is cyclical: long stretches of quiet price action often precede a sharp move in one direction or the other. Like a coiled spring, the tighter the market compresses, the more forcefully it can unwind.