The first game of the 2026 regular season nearly quadrupled the Kalshi volume generated by last year’s opener, pushing reported volume across three operators above $111 million.
Prediction market traders poured nearly $100 million into Patriots-Seahawks on Kalshi in 24 hours, lifting the game’s displayed volume from $5.85 million to $105.48 million before the rest of the NFL’s Week 1 schedule had kicked off.
The entire 2025 Cowboys-Eagles opener generated $28.01 million on Kalshi. New England-Seattle cleared that total nearly four times over in a single day, providing the first indication that DeFi Rate’s $56.5 billion NFL season forecast may have considerably more room to run.
Polymarket Global recorded another $4.70 million on the game, including $4.46 million in the same 24-hour period. Polymarket US had reported $1.02 million through Sept. 8, bringing the current three-operator total to at least $111.20 million. Its Sept. 9 report, which will capture game-day activity, is still pending.
This year’s opener left last season’s benchmark behind
The 2025 season opened with Dallas-Philadelphia generating $28.01 million on Kalshi and $4.37 million on Polymarket Global. Together, the two operators finished at $32.38 million.
Patriots-Seahawks has already reached $110.18 million across those same two operators, an increase of $77.80 million and 3.4 times the volume generated by last year’s opener.
The growth came almost entirely from Kalshi. Its game volume jumped by $77.48 million from one season opener to the next, accounting for 99.6% of the like-for-like increase. Polymarket Global rose 7.4%, from $4.37 million to $4.70 million.
First regular-season game comparison
| Operator | 2025 final | 2026 final | Increase | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $28,008,514.00 | $105,483,868.78 | $77,475,354.78 | 3.77× |
| Polymarket Global | $4,374,523.33 | $4,698,548.49 | $324,025.16 | 1.07× |
| Like-for-like total | $32,383,037.33 | $110,182,417.27 | $77,799,379.94 | 3.40× |
| Polymarket US | No comparable 2025 report | $1,020,380.98 through Sept. 8 | — | — |
Polymarket US is excluded from the year-over-year calculation because there is no comparable 2025 Daily Market Report series.
Moneyline led the game, but player props were nearly as large as spreads
Moneyline and period-winner markets did most of the work on Kalshi, generating $61.93 million, or 58.7% of the game’s $105.48 million headline volume.
The more revealing number came from player props. Touchdowns, receiving yards, rushing yards and other player markets produced $16.98 million, making them the second-largest part of the game. Player props narrowly surpassed spreads, which generated $15.71 million.
Over/under markets added $9.61 million. The remaining $1.25 million came from team and game props, including winning margin, overtime, field goals, sacks and which team would score first.
Polymarket Global remained more concentrated in the traditional markets. Moneyline and period winners accounted for $2.50 million of its $4.70 million total, followed by $1.26 million in spreads and $932,617 in totals.
Patriots-Seahawks volume by market type
| Type | Kalshi | Polymarket Global | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline and period winners | $61,932,350.89 | $2,502,419.02 | $821,495.73 |
| Player props | $16,982,411.81 | — | $20,160.99 |
| Spreads | $15,714,849.56 | $1,263,466.30 | $146,217.06 |
| Over/under totals | $9,607,772.49 | $932,616.65 | $32,507.20 |
| Other game and team props | $1,246,484.03 | $46.51 | — |
| Main game-market total | $105,483,868.78 | $4,698,548.49 | $1,020,380.98 |
Combos added another layer
The $105.48 million Kalshi figure does not include its separate multivariate-combo product.
Kalshi listed 1,050 combinations made up entirely of Patriots-Seahawks markets. Those same-game combos generated another $18.08 million, lifting directly attributable Kalshi volume for the game to $123.57 million.
| Kalshi category | # of markets | Volume | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same-game combos containing only Patriots-Seahawks legs | 1,050 | $18,084,524.28 | Fully attributable to the game |
| Mixed-event combos containing at least one Patriots-Seahawks leg | 3,227 | $141,513,819.71 | Reported separately; not fully attributable |
| Kalshi game volume including same-game combos | — | $123,568,393.06 | Main GAME basket plus fully attributable combos |
The additional $141.51 million in mixed-event combos shows how widely Patriots-Seahawks was used as a building block across Kalshi. Because those combinations also included other NFL games, sports and events, their full volume cannot be assigned to Patriots-Seahawks and is excluded from the game total.
Opening night swallowed the Week 1 board
Patriots-Seahawks did not merely lead Week 1. Its $111.20 million across the three operators accounted for 88.4% of the current volume attached to all 16 games.
The 49ers-Rams game ranked second at $5.95 million, leaving an 18.7-to-1 gap between the two standalone prime-time games. No other matchup had reached $1 million as of 7:30 a.m. ET on Sept. 10.
The Sunday and Monday schedule remained tightly grouped. Cowboys-Giants led that portion of the slate at $972,206, while Buccaneers-Bengals ranked last at $404,707. Kalshi was the largest operator for every game. Polymarket US ranked second for every remaining Sunday and Monday matchup, despite its latest available Daily Market Report covering trading only through Sept. 8.
Week 1 volume by game
| # | Game | Date | Kalshi | Poly Global | Poly US* | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriots-Seahawks | Sept. 9 | $105.48M | $4.70M | $1.02M | $111.20M |
| 2 | 49ers-Rams | Sept. 10 | $5.13M | $487.35K | $332.98K | $5.95M |
| 3 | Cowboys-Giants | Sept. 13 | $830.08K | $11.13K | $131.00K | $972.21K |
| 4 | Dolphins-Raiders | Sept. 13 | $679.64K | $66.81K | $59.92K | $806.37K |
| 5 | Bills-Texans | Sept. 13 | $572.30K | $98.99K | $119.83K | $791.12K |
| 6 | Saints-Lions | Sept. 13 | $562.49K | $11.24K | $85.88K | $659.61K |
| 7 | Ravens-Colts | Sept. 13 | $402.43K | $87.84K | $165.01K | $655.28K |
| 8 | Packers-Vikings | Sept. 13 | $541.52K | $10.11K | $100.66K | $652.29K |
| 9 | Broncos-Chiefs | Sept. 14 | $496.28K | $15.89K | $110.21K | $622.38K |
| 10 | Bears-Panthers | Sept. 13 | $481.21K | $28.55K | $112.43K | $622.19K |
| 11 | Cardinals-Chargers | Sept. 13 | $468.97K | $11.12K | $91.34K | $571.42K |
| 12 | Commanders-Eagles | Sept. 13 | $399.17K | $21.08K | $77.64K | $497.90K |
| 13 | Browns-Jaguars | Sept. 13 | $384.09K | $16.90K | $78.93K | $479.93K |
| 14 | Falcons-Steelers | Sept. 13 | $399.89K | $9.19K | $66.16K | $475.24K |
| 15 | Jets-Titans | Sept. 13 | $306.56K | $22.56K | $77.81K | $406.93K |
| 16 | Buccaneers-Bengals | Sept. 13 | $301.08K | $30.49K | $73.14K | $404.71K |
| Week 1 total | $117.44M | $5.63M | $2.70M | $125.77M | ||
*Patriots-Seahawks is complete. The other 15 games remain pregame and continue to accumulate volume. Polymarket US reflects official Daily Market Reports through Sept. 8. Kalshi and Polymarket Global were refreshed at 7:30 a.m. ET on Sept. 10. The Total column is directional because each operator publishes venue-native volume.
